AI Versus Me

‘Humans Need Not Apply’ - a video that recently went viral describes the future of intelligent machines and how they will disrupt human employability. (https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU)

Famous inventor and futurist, Ray Kurzweil, predicts that exponential increase in computing power will see artificial intelligence (AI) surpassing human intelligence in 2045. He describes this as the ‘Technological Singularity’, because by then, Kurzweil postulates, self-improving machines will think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans will not even comprehend what is going on, and this will forever change the course of human history.

The rate at which machines are replacing jobs that require physical labour has gone up significantly since the Industrial Revolution. Automation and mechanisation has led to replacement of humans with machines – number of people employed in agriculture has dropped drastically (while farm production has increased), robots now work on the assembly line, vending machines are replacing shopkeepers, ATMs have replaced bank tellers, you find self-check-in kiosks at airports, tele-marketing is becoming automated, at home we use vacuum cleaners and dishwashers instead of employing domestic help and so forth.

As machines replaced human labour, the complexion of the economy changed and knowledge in a domain became the key ingredient for employability in a services-dominated economy. An engineering, accountancy, or medical degree almost guaranteed lifelong employment.

Now intelligent machines are replacing jobs that were earlier available to humans because we had mental or cognitive abilities that the machines lacked. As this is happening, many 20^th century jobs are disappearing. You now buy an airline ticket from a website bypassing the travel agent (disintermediation), machine-based diagnostics is lowering the employment potential in fields like radiology (big-data analysis), banks are closing branches as banking moves online, with more and more banks toying with the idea that their future branches will only offer life stage and life style financial consultancy.

In this scenario, closer than we think, what we’ll see is ‘academic inflation’, not necessarily in the form of degrees but in the ability to have and exhibit deep knowledge and profound understanding in a domain. Only those who can do that will be ‘employable’.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) – the ability of machines to analyse, reason and learn is once again changing the complexion of the global economy. And, Artificial General Intelligence, that is a machine capable of performing any intellectual task a human being can, which may well become a reality in the next few decades, is going to change it even more dramatically.

What technology does is that it makes it possible for fewer humans to do the same amount of work. This leads to a widening income gap between those who can thrive in a technology driven world and those who can’t. A person develops an app that can do your taxes and that person becomes a millionaire while thousands of tax consultants become unemployed. Thus, technology can skew the income distribution – what economists call a ‘winner-takes-all-market’. You need to make sure you have the right skills so that you don't end up a tech- created have-not.

The more important question here is - will an intelligent machine replace you, or will it amplify you?

As in the past, the answer will depend on what skills and competencies you learn. Most experts agree that creativity, empathy, compassion, leadership, diplomacy, adaptability, focus, emotional maturity, mentoring, nurturing, self-directed learning, deep thinking, ability to solve complex problems, invention and entrepreneurship are some skills and competencies that will be much sought after in the age of intelligent machines. In addition, the ability to make the most of the intelligent machines themselves will be essential to enhance both the quality and scale of what you do.

For example, highly competent artisans, writers, musicians, life coaches, personal trainers and nurses will have a job even in the age of intelligent machines (there will be intense competition, and hence the high competence as an imperative).  However, to enhance the quality and to scale their businesses, these professionals will need to know how to best deploy intelligent machines in their vocation.

And, those who can imagine new products, new services and new industries, then have the ability to commercialise their idea will definitely flourish in the fast approaching future. Think about it - before Airbnb and Facebook, did you ever think you needed such services? And now we can’t imagine life without them.

Uber offers employment possibility to millions but what impact will driverless cars have on Uber? If you can crack such problems, your future is secure!

To flourish in the emerging future, you should not think of the argument as the conundrum of ‘AI vs Me’ but rather the empowering possibility of ‘AI and Me’.

The Idea Ecology

Ecology is the study of interactions among organisms and their environment. Ideas too have their ecology.

When the environment is VUCA – volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, a lone genius is unlikely to find the most elegant solution to a complex problem. A network of curious people, with deep knowledge in different domains, has a higher probability of finding optimal solutions.

Brian Eno calls such a network scenius – scenius is genius embedded not in the gene but in the scene or the environment. It is collective genius. Just like diversity is important in an ecological system it is also essential in the Idea Ecology.

Stuart Koffman has postulated the theory of the Adjacent Possible – biological systems morph into more complex systems through incremental steps and not big leaps, because in a given configuration only certain types of next steps are possible. You can’t jump straight from Big Bang to Humans. Evolution is a story of a long series of adjacent possible steps.

Steven Johnson, in his book Where Good Ideas Come From, proposes that ideas follow a similar adjacent possible trajectory. The perimeter of one idea needs to be pushed till you reach the next related or rival idea. If you want to innovate you need to expose yourself to the conversation and debate around an idea. As Johnson puts it: "Chance favours the connected mind."

To generate good ideas you need to have weak ties with an appropriate network in the idea ecology. Just like you have close friends and distant acquaintances, in the idea network you have strong ties and weak ties. The more weak ties you have the more widely connected you are in the network and there is a higher probability that you will receive more information that will help you refine your idea.

In an ecological system the inhabiting organisms compete, but they also cooperate. French sociologist, Emile Durkheim has called humans Homo duplex or the two-level man – one level of the ordinary individual and another level of the sacred united, where we feel collective anger of a war, collective joy of end of a war, or collective grief of a natural calamity.

To solve the complex problems we face today and to flourish as a species, learning how things work in an idea ecology - a right mix of independent and collaborative thinking, is an essential life skill.