‘Flip’ Your Job with AI

Search Engine Optimiser was not in the job lexicon a decade ago and a decade hence, probably earlier, Blockchain Validator might become a sought after job. Artificial Intelligence (AI), or computers that can learn themselves are changing the complexion of employment by becoming capable of doing tasks that could earlier be done only by a human, for example, driving a car in traffic. 

AI is disrupting jobs all across the skills ladder. According to a McKinsey study, this is happening because, be it a low skill or a high skill job, if you deconstruct the tasks needed to be done for the successful performance of a job, you will find that in almost every job there is a component that can be done better by AI. In such a scenario people who have the skills that complement AI will thrive. Think of a good surgeon who can become great by using AI-based Augmented Reality glasses that overlay useful information while the surgeon is performing surgery.

I think the Flipped Classroom model, where teachers curate online learning resources for delivering the didactic part of teaching and use precious classroom time on learning activities like discussions and debates that ensure students have a deeper understanding of the topic of study, can also be applied to the use of AI in jobs. Ability to use AI to ‘flip’ a job will distinguish a good professional from a great professional. For example, doctors could use IBM’s Watson AI machine for better and faster diagnostics and use the time they save in solving more complex cases.

You may not realise it but AI is already very much a part of your life. It lives in your email spam filters, it is present in your smartphones, it drives Apple’s Siri, Amazon’s recommendation system and soon it will impact many more areas. Many tasks being performed by humans today will be better done by AI machines and in the coming decades, this will change the nature of employment. Just like you may not know how your smartphone works but you know how to make the most of it since AI is becoming an integral part of your life, it is better you understand it and know how to complement it with your skills instead of competing against it.

AI is a computer that can learn by itself. It does so by using Machine Learning, which is different from traditional rule-based programming and uses computers' ability to analyse the big amount of data and decipher patterns from it.

Pedro Domingos, the author of the book The Master Algorithm, explains that traditional programming involved inputting data and an algorithm (an algorithm is a detailed sequence of steps or operations that tell the computer what to do with the data), the computer then processes the data based on the algorithm and outputs the result. In Machine Learning, the data is input along with the output and the computer generates the algorithm.

For example, we may input thousands of x-ray images of lungs and tell the computer which x-ray images reveal cancer and which are normal. The computer takes both these inputs and teaches itself how to detect cancer. If it makes a mistake in its diagnosis this data is again fed back and the iterative process helps the computer enhance its cancer detection algorithm. Computers taking data and figuring out the algorithm themselves is called Machine Learning. 

Domingos explains that there are different approaches to Machine Learning. Some computer scientists take inspiration from first order logic to derive the AI algorithm. In this method the data that is input are specific facts and the computer works out the general principle. This approach, for example, is used in drug discovery like finding a new drug for malaria. Another group of computer scientists takes inspiration from the way the brain and the neurons work and create Neural Networks to extract rules and patterns from a set of data. This AI approach, also called Deep Learning, for example, is used by Facebook’s Deep Face facial recognition system, which identifies human faces in digital images. It has a nine-layered neural network and used four million images uploaded by Facebook users to train itself.

In another AI approach, uncertainty decides the probability of different possible outcomes and based on actual outcomes this probability is updated and iteratively the system performance improves. This AI approach is used, for example, in Google’s self-driving cars, and in email spam filtering. Another AI approach takes inspiration from ‘reasoning by analogy’ and uses what is called the ‘nearest neighbour algorithm’. Recommendation Systems (‘if you liked this song you may also like…’) and Collaborative Filtering uses this approach.

We can distinguish between two types of AI.

Weak or Narrow AI: is AI that is good at doing only one task. In 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue computer beat the world chess champion, Gary Kasparov. In 2011, IBM’s Watson computer beat the human champions of the American television game show, Jeopardy. Earlier this year Google’s AlphaGo AI machine beat the world champion of Go, a really complex strategy board game. These and other areas like spam filtering and recommendations systems are all examples of Weak AI and can do only one task. IBM’s Deep Blue computer was very good at learning and improving its chess playing technique but it was not much good at anything else, not even playing another type of game.

Strong AI or Artificial General Intelligence: is, as yet, a hypothetical machine that can think, learn and perform any intellectual task that a human being can perform. Strong AI can improve its performance by itself using what is called ‘recursive self-improvement’. Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision are examples of strong AI.

Some computer scientists believe that sometime in the future, not certain when, there will be a moment of ‘singularity’ when AI will exceed human intelligence. We could also come to a point where AI machines will create even more intelligent machines themselves – what is described as Artificial Super Intelligence. Although when this will happen is not certain, many prominent people like Bill Gates, Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking are of the view that we need to put safeguards in place because the ‘maker’ (us humans) will no longer be in charge of such machines. Swedish philosopher, Nick Bostrom, believes that Artificial Super Intelligence poses ‘existential risk’ meaning such machines pose the danger of annihilating humans.

Whether in the long run Strong AI poses an existential threat or not, what is certain is that in the shorter term Weak AI itself is disrupting our socio-economic future. Some experts argue that AI will lead to mass unemployment (leading to massive social unrest) while other experts are of the opinion that adoption of AI will lead to the emergence of new jobs, like repairing robots.

We don't know which of this prognosis will come true but one thing is certain – the skills, competencies and dispositions needed to flourish in the age of intelligent machines will be very different. Creativity, ideation, large-frame pattern recognition, ability to solve unstructured problems, fine dexterity, and complex communication, along with the ability to complement these skills with the use of AI, such that the human-machine alchemy allows you to do tasks that were not possible earlier, will greatly enhance your employability and entrepreneurship potential.

I am Going on a Digital Diet!

Recently I attended a panel discussion at my son’s school on students’ wellbeing and the most hotly discussed topic there was the overuse of computers, internet and smartphones by adolescents. This set me introspecting about my own use of digital technologies. I believe, while I am definitely not addicted to ICTs, I will be better off changing some of my technology-related behaviour.

For example, the first thing I do when I wake up in the morning is to check my email on my smartphone, which I keep next to my bed. Another area of concern is frequently looking at how many people have viewed my blog posts and ‘liked’ them! The third culprit is the number of times during the day I glance at my smartphone to check my email and Whats App.

My diagnosis: I need to go on a digital diet, which I hope will also lead to permanent behavioural change.

It will not be an anorexic diet. Luddite abstinence from ICTs will be madness, given all the positives these technologies have to offer, like access to good quality learning content. It will be more like Atkins or Paleo diet where you deliberately choose not to eat certain types of foods, which in my case are the three areas of behaviour noted earlier. I surmise I should go on a digital diet now so that I can nip any possible future technology addiction as there is a fair chance of becoming a technology addict given the proportions compulsive use of internet and smartphones is taking.

Consider: In South Korea, internet addiction and gaming is deemed to be a national crisis. To tackle this problem the Korean government has set up National Centre for Youth Internet Addiction Treatment, where participants admit that they play online games for up to 10 hours during school days and up to 20 hours during holidays, staying awake till 4 a.m. In a recent health poll in Australia, 58% of parents said that their top health concern for their children is excessive screen time. A study conducted by Pew Research Centre in the US noted that – 'young users are particularly likely to use a smartphone to avoid boredom – and ignore other people'. Researchers are finding that pathological use of ICT is impairing familial, social, academic and occupational aspects of life.

While the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), the Bible for the mental health professionals, does not yet include smartphone and internet addiction as a mental order (the latest addition notes that this area merits more research), psychology practitioners are finding similarities between gambling addiction (which is included in the DSM) and pathological use of the internet.

Feeling depressed, hopeless, or pessimistic about the future sometimes leads to binge behaviour, which could be excessive eating, alcoholism, or even binging on television. This happens because such binge behaviour presents itself as a relief and escape from negative emotions, even though it is temporary and illusory. Today, gaming, the internet and smartphone apps are emerging as another type of binge behaviour that serve as powerful distracting sensations and provide relief, though momentary.

In his book Sapiens, author Yuval Noah Harari makes an interesting observation about the advent of agriculture in human history. He infers that ‘wheat domesticated humans’ and it was not the other way around. Before agriculture humans were free roaming, hunter-gatherers but once they started cultivating wheat, the crop made humans do backbreaking work so that it could survive and thrive. Humans cleared forests, tilled the land, watered the saplings, removed weeds – all so that wheat could flourish. And in so doing, humans became domesticated. The word domesticated comes from the Latin root ‘domus’ meaning house, or living in a house, and it is not wheat but humans who have ended up living inside houses!

Like wheat, ICT seem to be controlling humans so that ICT can flourish! As one Korean teenage gamer at the National Centre for Youth Internet Addiction Treatment admitted, “I feel like the game is controlling me.”

A good lens to look at your internet and smartphone use is ‘locus of control’. In psychology, 'locus of control' is the extent to which you believe you can control events affecting you. You have a strong internal locus of control if you firmly believe that events and outcomes in your life derive primarily from your own actions. You could ask yourself if the use of technology is leading to a shift of your locus of control from being internal to becoming external?

For example, I write these blog posts because doing so gives me clarity about my own thoughts and ideas and because I enjoy writing them. But if the lack of readership or a single negative comment makes me distraught then I am letting my locus of control become external.

Whether internet addiction makes it into the DSM or not, the question we should be asking ourselves is if our use of technology is becoming compulsive? Are we becoming so dependent on our smartphone that its absence leads to withdrawal symptoms like feeling angry, tense or depressed? In children, is internet taking precedence over necessary life tasks and basic drives? Is its excessive use leading to a loss of sense of time? Is it stopping them from being physically present with their family, friends and with nature?

I should highlight that it is not the amount of time you spend on the internet, or on your smartphone that is a cause of worry; it is how you are using technology that could lead to problems. If your use of ICT is compulsive, if it is leading to an attention deficit (you can’t focus for long periods of time on a single task because you can’t resist checking email, Facebook, Whats App or Instagram frequently), if you are ignoring family, study and work, or if technology is impacting your wellbeing, then you should investigate if you face the danger of becoming a tech-junkie.

In another post, quoting from a story from the Indian lore, I have described ICT as a ‘Bhasmasuri Vardaan’ – a boon that can become a curse if you lose self-control and the ability to self-regulate. To make sure your ‘ability to be’ or what Aristotle calls ‘eudaimonia’ (long-term wellbeing) is not being impaired, check your use of digital technologies and if required, go on a digital diet now before you are forced to go on a digital detox!

Videos in Hindi on Trends & Technologies

I have started a video series in Hindi on technologies and trends that have the potential to disrupt life in the 21st century. I have done so because there is a lot of information available on these topics in English but not so much in Hindi. To be aware of the challenges and opportunities these trends and technologies will throw up for the youth, it is important they understand them.

This 9-minute animated video explains the 'Gig' economy in Hindi.

'गिग' इकॉनमी में मनमौजी रोज़गार

आज नौकरी की परिभाषा और कार्य का स्वरूप बदल रहा है. एक नयी वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था उभर रही है जिसको नाम दिया जा रहा है 'गिग' इकॉनमी - फ्रीलान्स, प्रोजेक्ट आधारित काम करने की विधि. गिग इकॉनमी में आपकी सफलता निर्भर है आपकी विशिष्ठ निपुणता पर. यह हो सकती है आपकी असाधारण प्रतिभा, गहरा अनुभव, विशेषज्ञ ज्ञान या प्रचलित कौशल.  आज आप आरक्षणपूर्ण सरकारी नौकरी कर सकते हैं, या किसी प्राइवेट कंपनी के मुलाजिम बन सकते हैं, या एक मल्टीनेशनल कंपनी में रोजगार ढूंढ सकते है, या उभरती गिग इकॉनमी में मनमौजी काम कर सकते हैं, या मुमकिन हो तो शायद आप इन भिन्न विकल्पों का मिश्रण पसंद करें - जैसे तीन दिन प्राइवेट कंपनी में नौकरी और तीन दिन गिग इकॉनमी में मनमौजी काम. सबसे महत्वपूर्ण बात यह है कि आपको इन सब अवसरों की जानकारी हो ताकि आप एक सूचित निर्णय ले पायें. इस वीडियो का उद्देश्य आपको यह जानकारी देना ही है. https://youtu.be/04su1fuTaiM 

This 3-minute video explains Blockchain Technology, in Hindi.

ब्लोकचेन

ब्लोकचेन उन टेक्नोलॉजी में एक है जो कि 21वीं सदी कि अर्थव्यवस्था में बहुत बड़ा परिवर्तन लाने की क्षमता रखती हैं. यह वीडियो संक्षेप में आपको समझाएगा कि ब्लोकचेन टेक्नोलॉजी क्या है? https://youtu.be/lPnmCxdZQYQ

Life in the Gig Economy

In the early 20th century, for a city dweller in India, definition of a nice life usually meant, “He got a government job, and lived happily ever after!” Such a person studied until a certain age, usually until graduation, and then looked for a job. A good job usually meant working for the government, or for a reputed public or private company. Once hired people would work with the same employer all their life and retire with savings in their Provident Fund, and possibly a life-long pension. 

In the late 20th century definition of a great job became, “She got a job with an MNC and lived happily ever after!” The notion of ‘first learn, then work’ got challenged and to succeed in your career you constantly needed retraining. This retraining was mostly provided by the employer in the form of seminars, conferences and executive courses. Few people also took sabbaticals. People now changed jobs a few times in their career.

The answer to ‘What is a job?’ is changing again. Earlier we thought of a job as a service a person is capable of providing for which there are takers who are willing to pay a salary. Definition of a job has now become ‘your ability to add value’ to an undertaking. Say some entrepreneurs plan to start an IT company that will service the banks and you have expert knowledge of banking. You can offer your knowledge to this group to help improve their product. Your expert knowledge, talent, skill, or experience is the value you bring to the table for which you get compensated. Today compensation can be in the form of salary, retainer, fee, bonus, profit-sharing or shares.

To succeed in today’s economy, from being a passive job seeker, you have to learn to ‘invent’ a job for yourself, nicely packaging and marketing the ‘value’ you can add, 'value' being your experience, knowledge, talent, or skill.

The good news is that if you have something of value to offer you can now plug yourself into a bigger pool of demand, even into the global economy, sitting right where you are. A multitude of platforms or online marketplaces has emerged where you can offer your knowledge, skill, or talent and get rewarded.

If you make exquisite handmade things you can now sell them globally on the online marketplace Etsy - https://www.etsy.com  If you are a good artist or designer you can now get work, even from abroad on https://www.fiverr.com If you are good at coding you can offer your talent to international clients on https://www.upwork.com If you enjoy making films and are good at it, you can get freelance work on http://90seconds.co.uk

These are just a few examples, there are several other platforms that consolidate the fragmented demand for a product or service, even an esoteric one. They bring together buyers and sellers, ease the transaction process and put checks in place. Negotiations and payments are made online and buyers and sellers can rate each other. Rating puts their reputation at stake and if the buyer’s reputation gets tarnished no seller will sell to that buyer and vice-versa.

The point here is that nature of work and its economics is changing. This freelance, on-demand economy is being called the 'gig' economy. The word 'gig' as used in this context has been borrowed from the music industry where artists are not employed full-time but live from one performance (gig) to another. This is also being called ‘uberisation of work’ thanks to the success of the company Uber that has allowed anyone with a car and a driving license to become a freelance driver.

Earlier self-employed individuals and micro-enterprises could only cater to the local demand because they didn't have funds to market their offering. They relied on word-of-mouth publicity and middlemen. There was information asymmetry because the seller (individuals and micro-enterprises) didn't know the true worth of their offering and the middleman could exploit this information asymmetry. Today sellers, however small, can plug into the market via the online aggregators and offer their skill or talent globally, for a negotiated price.

To succeed in the gig economy you have to become very good at what you do because when you tap into the global market you also face tough competition.  

The gig economy offers upsides like flexibility, autonomy, creative expression and a chance to acquire mastery in what you love doing. And, autonomy, mastery, and purpose are the three drivers of intrinsic motivation. The gig economy thus offers you a chance be an intrinsically motivated participant in the emerging global economic milieu and live an exuberant life. 

However, for a fair assessment, you should also be aware of the downsides of the gig economy –  you thrive only if you are really good at what you do, you face volatility in income, it becomes difficult to plan the future because of uncertainty in inflow of funds, bank loans may be difficult to come by as banks require documents like a salary proof, there no job security, no mandatory savings and no pension.

If the downsides have dampened your enthusiasm for the gig economy, do consider that before the industrial revolution, that is just around 200 years back, before the era of mass production, the main avenues of employment were microenterprises and self-employment (in fact, in India, unorganised sector still accounts for over 90% of employment). Job security is a fairly new concept and unavailable to most people in economies where the unorganised sector dominates employment. Instead of being afraid of the on-demand, freelance economy, focus on cultivating attributes that will enable you to thrive, viz deep knowledge, creativity, innovation, and mastery.

Most people ‘work to live’ and some ‘live to work’. We tell ourselves, “I will first work, make some money and then do the stuff I really enjoy doing.” The gig economy offers you an opportunity to ‘live and work’ – do what you enjoy doing and also make money doing so! 

Go ahead, measure your risk appetite and figure out if there is a life for you in the gig economy.